I Built a Stock Trading Strategy with Lobbying Data

We read every federal lobbying filing since 2016 and tracked the 10,649 people who went from jobs in Congress and federal agencies into lobbying. Then we tested whether following them beats the stock market. Former staff from both parties end up lobbying for the same companies. Of the 840 public companies with five or more former congressional staffers lobbying for them, 800 had people from both parties. And buying the government contractors that were adding these hires returned +410% in our backtest from 2017 to 2026, against +192% for an equal-weighted S&P 500. It starts with the company that makes Tasers. Axon hired 11 Washington insiders in one quarter, among them a former aide to Chuck Schumer and a former chief counsel to John Cornyn, who run a lobbying firm together. A year later Axon's stock was up 50%. Chapters 0:00 The Taser maker that hired 11 Washington insiders 0:32 800 of 840 companies hire from both parties 1:05 What the revolving door is 1:35 Whose staff become lobbyists 2:01 Members of Congress who lobby after leaving 2:17 The companies with the most former staff 2:33 How we tracked 10,649 people 2:57 The revolving door is getting busier 3:26 Micron's hires as CHIPS Act money was awarded 3:48 Corning adds three insiders in one quarter 4:03 Both parties on one filing 4:24 Can you trade it? The rules 4:47 Six strategies 5:18 The results 6:21 +410%: contractors adding connections 6:58 Why it might work 7:19 What to test next 7:59 When members of Congress buy their ex-staff's employers 8:14 Get the data and the code Track the revolving door yourself: https://www.quiverquant.com/revolving-door/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=video&utm_campaign=revolving_door Corporate lobbying data: https://www.quiverquant.com/lobbying/ Congressional trading data: https://www.quiverquant.com/congresstrading/ Government contracts data: https://www.quiverquant.com/sources/govcontracts The backtest code (runs on one Hobbyist API key): https://github.com/QuiverQuant/quiver-api-tutorials/blob/main/strategies/revolving_door_lobbying.py Quiver API plans: https://api.quiverquant.com/pricing/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=video&utm_campaign=revolving_door How the backtest works Every quarter we rank the S&P 500 members of that time and buy the top 10 in equal amounts. Each signal waits a full quarter after its filing period, so no filing is used before it was public. 38 rebalances from March 2017 to September 2026. Benchmark: an equal-weighted S&P 500, which returned +192%. The contractors-only strategy returned +410% with a Sharpe ratio of 1.13 and a worst drawdown of 25%, and beat the benchmark in 7 of 10 calendar years. People are counted by name, because lobbyist IDs change when someone switches firms. Sources: Senate LD-2 lobbying disclosures (lda.gov), official congressional portraits, O'Dwyer's (Klein/Johnson Group launch, December 12, 2017), Architect of the Capitol and NASA footage (public domain). Music generated with Google Lyria. Backtested results are historical and hypothetical, not a live track record and not a prediction of future returns. Nothing in this video is investment advice. Hiring former officials is legal and disclosed; nothing here implies wrongdoing by any person or company named. #lobbying #congress #stockmarket